Gerald Weinberg's "Titanic Effect" principle is that believing that disaster is impossible often leads to disaster. You must never become so smug that you think everything is under control and will remain that way. Overconfidence is the primary cause of many disasters. It is the mountain climber who says, "It's just a small climb; I don't need a belay," or the hiker who says, "It's just a short hike; I don't need water," who gets into trouble. Reduce risk to your projects by analyzing all your potential disasters up front, develop contingency plans for them in advance, and continually reassess new risks. This principle emphasizes the need to expect these risks to become real. Your biggest management disasters will occur when you think they won't.
Perhaps if Weinberg had been writing Quality Software Management in 2020, he would have called it the "Covid-19 Effect." No matter what it is called you'll still face a very big problem. It takes costly time and effort analyze the risks and make contingency plans. Most projects will be lucky and won't face disaster and some will but they contingency plans will work and make the problems seem smaller than they actually were. It won't take long and someone, probably your company's CFO, will say, "Do we really have to do all this expensive analysis and planning?" This is the disaster that will sink many future projects if you don't plan for it in advance by documenting the problems that such planning avoids and estimating the costs had contingency plans had not been in place. Furthermore, you must make disaster prevention and recovery a company culture value that everyone believes in and ensures it's success.
Reference:
Weinberg, G., Quality Software Management, Vol. 1: Systems Thinking, New York: Dorest House, 1992.
